|
It has
been said that in the year 2011, we will experience a demographic shift
of a magnitude not experienced since the heyday of the Baby Boomers.
There will be more teenagers coming into their own in 2011 than at any
time since the days of Woodstock (the original, not the knock-off
commercial imitations). What will be the effect of this demographic
revolution? What will be the result of the current upsurge in the youth population? Historically, drastic demographic shifts have often brought about shifts in the consciousness of the larger society. Politics, religion, morality, mass media, fashion, and the arts all undergo significant shifts in tone, content, and perspective. While many such shifts could be pointed out, the one that looms largest in recent cultural memory is that wrought by the baby boomers in the 60's and early 70's. Although reactionary influences have since arisen and popular culture and morals have under gone some shifts back toward earlier values and priorities, there is no mistaking the fact that the world, and especially American society, changed in that era in unmistakable and undeniable ways. The impact of the baby boomers is especially relevant as we consider the question "what will happen when the baby boom echo, as it's called, hits it's teen years in 2011?" Will there be another dramatic shift in our collective societal consciousness? Will there be changes in morality, in family structure, in career attitudes, in religion/spirituality, in literature, art? The following articles (and some not yet written) are dedicated to the examination of this question.
Where I got my figures
I
pulled my statistics out of a weekly national newsmagazine several
years back.
What the U.S. Department of Education's statistics report. The figures reported by the U.S. Dept. of Education would indicate a slightly earlier peak, if I read them correctly. They still seem to indicate that full culmination of the baby boom echo will be reached in 2009. Click here to see their chart for yourself. You may be a better bean counter (or chart reader) than I. If you would like to read their special report on this topic, entitled "A Back To School Special Report On The Baby Boom Echo -- No End in Sight," click here.
Rock The Boat -- And The Vote Historically, teenagers tend to be more open to rapid change and less attached to the ways of the past. They tend to have less built up in the way of prestige, property, and social responsibility (i.e. persons dependent on them for emotional and economic stability) than do persons in older age brackets. Also, (if it has not been squashed out of them) they still have much of the pre-teens sense of excessive self-confidence (after all the early childhood years of struggling to gain mastery over simple tasks, an attitude of invincibility can sometimes kick in ). At the same time they have the teenager's need to differentiate himself from his parents -- become his own person, think his own thoughts. Both these factors lay behind the rebelliousness that teens are legendary for. A third factor is idealism. Cognitively they have reached Piaget's "logical" thinking phase, where their ability to grasp and consider complex abstract ideas is beginning to blossom rapidly. At the same time they have not yet accrued all the life experience, setbacks, and therefore caution that will later mediate their opinions and decisions. Finally, I believe that another large factor that predisposes teenagers to supporting change is that they themselves have gone through so much rapid change in their journey from child to adult -- with even more big transitions sitting on their horizon. They are simply accustomed to it. Necessity dictates that they embrace it, flow with it, adapt to it. And the enhancement in physical, cognitive, and social skills is like a carrot driving them forward. With the stick of social stigma (being "slow" or inept or socially awkward) driving them from behind.
Factors and Factions of Conservatism On the other hand, many young Americans are from countries that have seen real instability. They remember all too well their family stories of the Pol Pots and the Castros and what the results on their families were. Certain ethnic groups tend to vote more conservatively than their Anglo-American counterparts. For good reason, psychologically -- they've experienced rapid change and social instability and they want none of it. They've also experienced other people having excessive control over their livelihood and the products of their labor, and they want none of that either. An additional factor for conservatism is that many of these young, non-Anglo Americans feel a stronger pull to help provide for the family as well. And some certainly would never dream of choosing a path that went too deeply against tradition. Still, all in all, teenagers are teenagers. Meaning, that despite all the other factors in their individual lives, they dance with Kali. That is, their own ongoing development pushes them to tread the old underfoot, and celebrate all that is new and exciting and developing -- to embrace it, comprehend it, master it. Perhaps this is why some parents wait for their kids to reprogram the VCR, usher them around the Internet, and explain the intricacies of multi-function remote controls. What will these young people be ready to embrace in the first and second decade of the new millennium?
|
